Železničar Pančevovs
FK Crvena Zvezda
COMPLETEDSerbia · Super Liga · 9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Crvena Zvezda · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Železničar Pančevo 1-2 FK Crvena Zvezda
Original prediction
FK Crvena Zvezda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.33 | 12.4% | 20.4% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.59 | 19.9% | 23.6% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 67.7% | 56.1% | -11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
FK Crvena Zvezda
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
FK Crvena Zvezda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20