Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Eldense 0-0 Oviedo, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Eldense 4-1 Oviedo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 37.4% | 30.4% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.3% | 32.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 31.3% | 37.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Projected Score
Eldense 0–0 Oviedo
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
37.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EldenseLLWDL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
OviedoWLWDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EldenseOviedo
19.0Attack33.3
57.1Defence81.0
23.8Form52.4
36.3Power56.3
0.59xG0.94