Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eldense 1-2 Eibar
Original prediction
Eibar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 32.0% | 34.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.6% | 29.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 37.4% | 36.0% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Eibar
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Eibar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EldenseWDLDL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EibarWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
EldenseEibar
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.24xG1.24