Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eldense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eldense 2-1 Cordoba
Original prediction
Eldense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.4% | 41.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.9% | 27.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 32.8% | 31.6% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Eldense
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Eldense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EldenseWLLWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CordobaWLWLL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EldenseCordoba
33.3Attack54.2
58.3Defence25.0
33.3Form37.5
43.0Power42.2
1.59xG1.22