Elchevs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/7/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elche 2-3 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Real Sociedad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.34 | 28.6% | 34.0% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 27.4% | 27.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 44.1% | 38.3% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Real Sociedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80