Elchevs
Real Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/15/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elche 2-3 Real Madrid
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 11.55 | 8.3% | 14.7% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.77 | 14.1% | 18.4% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 77.6% | 66.8% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80