Elche IIvs
Valencia II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valencia II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elche II 4-1 Valencia II
Original prediction
Valencia II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.2% | 33.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 29.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.8% | 37.5% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Valencia II
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Valencia II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40