Elche IIvs
Ucam Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/3/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elche II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elche II 1-5 Ucam Murcia
Original prediction
Elche II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 27.9% | 38.4% | 10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 28.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.8% | 33.1% | -11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Elche II
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Elche II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20