Elche IIvs
Peña Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/20/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elche II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elche II 1-0 Peña Deportiva
Original prediction
Elche II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.5% | 41.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.7% | 30.4% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Elche II
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Elche II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80