El Salvadorvs
Martinique
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
El Salvador · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
El Salvador 3-1 Martinique
Original prediction
El Salvador
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.4% | 42.7% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.0% | 26.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.43 | 20.7% | 30.4% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
El Salvador
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
El Salvador has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.50/1.50