El Salvadorvs
Jamaica
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jamaica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
El Salvador 0-2 Jamaica
Original prediction
Jamaica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.27 | 28.0% | 34.0% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.5% | 26.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.5% | 39.4% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Jamaica
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Jamaica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40