GGOALVIO

Argentina · Primera C · 3/21/2026, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

El Porvenir are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Mercedes are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Mercedes hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (46.8 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.4% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 14% BTTS chance and 7% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

49.6%

Model confidence

40.4%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

El PorvenirDDDLD

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
MercedesLWWLD

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
El PorvenirMercedes
24.6Attack33.3
69.6Defence79.7
37.7Form47.8
46.8Power54.2
0.35xG0.57
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