El Porvenirvs
Mercedes
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 3/21/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
El Porvenir are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Mercedes are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Mercedes hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (46.8 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.4% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 14% BTTS chance and 7% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
40.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60