Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
El Palo are 2W-2D-0L in their last 4 (WDDW), averaging 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded, while Vélez are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and El Palo hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (44.1 v 35.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.25/0.75
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.67