GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2/16/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

El Nacional are 3W-0D-0L in their last 3 (WWW), averaging 3.67 scored and 0.67 conceded, while Nacional Potosí are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (WLLD), averaging 1.25 scored and 2.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Nacional Potosí hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (44.6 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.5% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

35.5%

Model confidence

35.5%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

El NacionalWWW

GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 3.67/0.67

BTTS 2/3O2.5 3/3
Nacional PotosíWLLD

GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.25/2.50

BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
El NacionalNacional Potosí
41.7Attack16.7
50.0Defence66.7
33.3Form50.0
44.6Power47.8
1.16xG1.06
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