El Nacionalvs
Independiente Medellin
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2/21/2023, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
El Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
El Nacional are 4W-0D-0L in their last 4 (WWWW), averaging 3.50 scored and 0.75 conceded, while Independiente Medellin are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Independiente Medellin hold a 4.9-point power-rating edge (44.6 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while El Nacional holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
El Nacional
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
El Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 3.50/0.75
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40