El Nacionalvs
Gualaceo SC
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 10/27/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gualaceo SC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: El Nacional 0-1 Gualaceo SC, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
El Nacional 1-1 Gualaceo SC
Original prediction
Gualaceo SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 02:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.3% | 17.8% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 28.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.0% | 53.5% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Projected Score
El Nacional 0–1 Gualaceo SC
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Gualaceo SC
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Gualaceo SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
El NacionalLLWLL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Gualaceo SCDDDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
El NacionalGualaceo SC
29.0Attack35.5
46.2Defence78.5
19.4Form51.6
33.6Power56.6
0.41xG1.12