El Nacionalvs
Cumbayá
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cumbayá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: El Nacional 0-0 Cumbayá, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
El Nacional 0-3 Cumbayá
Original prediction
Cumbayá
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 34.6% | 21.1% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.0% | 30.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 36.4% | 48.8% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Projected Score
El Nacional 0–0 Cumbayá
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Cumbayá
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Cumbayá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
El NacionalLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CumbayáWLLDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
El NacionalCumbayá
23.1Attack38.5
51.3Defence66.7
19.2Form38.5
33.5Power48.0
0.48xG1.07