El Mokawloonvs
Al Ahly
COMPLETEDEgypt · Premier League · 9/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
El Mokawloon 1-1 Al Ahly
Original prediction
Al Ahly
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.00 | 11.5% | 23.1% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.7% | 27.1% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 66.9% | 49.8% | -17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
El MokawloonWLLWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al AhlyWWWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
El MokawloonAl Ahly
33.3Attack66.7
55.6Defence77.8
33.3Form100.0
43.7Power85.2
0.83xG1.32