Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
El Geish · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: El Geish 1-0 Smouha SC, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
El Geish 0-1 Smouha SC
Original prediction
El Geish
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.5% | 42.6% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.51 | 36.3% | 31.5% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.2% | 25.9% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Projected Score
El Geish 1–0 Smouha SC
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
El Geish
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
El Geish has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
El GeishDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Smouha SCLLDLL
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
El GeishSmouha SC
41.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence66.7
58.3Form8.3
58.8Power28.6
1.16xG0.67