Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Garliava · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ekranas 1-0 Garliava
Original prediction
Garliava
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.90 | 18.1% | 16.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 23.7% | 23.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 58.2% | 60.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Garliava
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Garliava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EkranasLLLWD
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GarliavaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EkranasGarliava
31.8Attack36.5
24.2Defence63.5
16.7Form34.9
26.8Power45.7
0.71xG1.61