Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Taraz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ekibastuz 2-3 Taraz
Original prediction
Taraz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.6% | 26.4% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.7% | 22.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.7% | 50.9% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Taraz
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Taraz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EkibastuzLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TarazWDDDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EkibastuzTaraz
42.7Attack48.0
25.3Defence56.0
36.0Form45.3
37.0Power50.3
1.20xG2.08