1. Division1. Division
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:10
Ekibastuz

Ekibastuz

Home
LLW
02
Full time
Shakhter Karagandy

Shakhter Karagandy

Away
WWW
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Shakhter Karagandy(40%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Prediction correct— Result: Shakhter Karagandy
Win probability
Ekibastuz
33%
Draw
28%
Shakhter Karagandy
40%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ekibastuz
61
Shakhter Karagandy
61
Defence
Ekibastuz
17
Shakhter Karagandy
86
Momentum
Ekibastuz
33
Shakhter Karagandy
100
Danger (xG)
Ekibastuz
1.50
Shakhter Karagandy
1.50
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Ekibastuz)
1.50
avg per match
xG for (Shakhter Karagandy)
1.50
avg per match
xG against (Ekibastuz)
2.10
avg per match
xG against (Shakhter Karagandy)
0.30
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
EkibastuzEkibastuz
LLWDW
Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy
WWWWW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Ekibastuz33%
Draw28%
Shakhter Karagandy40%

Shakhter Karagandy leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Ekibastuz head into this in 1. Division fixture in mixed form (LLW), while Shakhter Karagandy arrive in strong form (WWW). Ekibastuz have a 33% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 100% for Shakhter Karagandy over 3 games.

Tactically, Shakhter Karagandy hold the edge. Their strong attack (61/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Ekibastuz defence (17/100), while Ekibastuz's attack faces a watertight Shakhter Karagandy backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Ekibastuz have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 3 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per home match. Shakhter Karagandy have been excellent on the road, winning all 3 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per away game.

Shakhter Karagandy have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Shakhter Karagandy to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-2. Win probabilities: Ekibastuz 3286%, Draw 2752%, Shakhter Karagandy 3961%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Ekibastuz 0Draws 01 Shakhter Karagandy
Avg goals: 2.0
16 Jul 2026
Ekibastuz
L02
Shakhter Karagandy

Recent form

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Shakhter Karagandy

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Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy?

GoalVio's model predicts Shakhter Karagandy to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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