Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ekibastuz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ekibastuz are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Kaspiy are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Ekibastuz hold a 9.8-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the Cup, while Ekibastuz holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ekibastuz
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Ekibastuz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60