Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 10:02
Eichstätt

Eichstätt

Home
L
03
Full time
Illertissen

Illertissen

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
51% confidence
Illertissen(51%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Win probability
Eichstätt
23%
Draw
26%
Illertissen
51%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Eichstätt
34
Illertissen
73
Defence
Eichstätt
6
Illertissen
66
Momentum
Eichstätt
0
Illertissen
100
Danger (xG)
Eichstätt
0.90
Illertissen
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.02 xG for Eichstätt and 2.07 xG for Illertissen — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Eichstätt holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.09 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Eichstätt's Attack Score (34) vs Illertissen's Defensive Stability (66) and Illertissen's attack (73) vs Eichstätt's defence (6) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Eichstätt)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Illertissen)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Eichstätt)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Illertissen)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
EichstättEichstätt
LL
IllertissenIllertissen
W

Probability breakdown

51% confidence
Eichstätt23%
Draw26%
Illertissen51%

Illertissen leads with 51% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Illertissen Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Eichstätt host Illertissen in Regionalliga - Bayern. Eichstätt have recorded WWLLLL in recent matches while Illertissen arrive with a run of WWWLWW.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.07 expected goals for Illertissen against 1.02 for Eichstätt — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 📈 Recent Form Illertissen arrive in better recent form — 5 wins from 10 matches (WWWLWW) against Eichstätt's 2. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Eichstätt have averaged 1.12 goals per game recently while Illertissen have managed 3.35. Illertissen have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Illertissen win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Illertissen are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.07 projected against 1.02 for Eichstätt. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.06 is the clearest signal in the model that Illertissen are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Illertissen are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Eichstätt

Eichstätt

L
@ BSG Chemie Leipzig
1 Jul 2026
13
L
vs Buchbach
16 May 2026
01
Illertissen

Illertissen

W
vs Schwaben Augsburg
16 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Eichstätt vs Illertissen?

GoalVio's model predicts Illertissen to win with 51% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Eichstätt vs Illertissen?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Eichstätt vs Illertissen?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Eichstätt vs Illertissen?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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