Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eibar 1-1 Mallorca
Original prediction
Eibar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 36.6% | 43.9% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 30.1% | 28.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.3% | 27.9% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Eibar
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Eibar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EibarLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MallorcaWDLWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EibarMallorca
70.4Attack40.7
63.0Defence85.2
77.8Form63.0
70.7Power63.6
1.22xG0.83