Eibarvs
Las Palmas
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/27/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eibar 3-2 Las Palmas
Original prediction
Eibar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.3% | 51.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.5% | 26.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 22.2% | 22.5% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Eibar
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Eibar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EibarWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Las PalmasLWDLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EibarLas Palmas
66.7Attack44.4
77.8Defence55.6
83.3Form55.6
75.7Power54.0
1.79xG0.77