Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Eibar are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Elche are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Eibar hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (57.5 v 50.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.2% in the Segunda División, while Eibar holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Eibar
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Eibar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60