Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eibar II 1-1 Basconia
Original prediction
Eibar II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.8% | 53.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 24.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 23.4% | 22.6% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Eibar II
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Eibar II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Eibar IIWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BasconiaDWDWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Eibar IIBasconia
75.0Attack60.0
91.7Defence46.7
100.0Form53.3
89.2Power56.5
2.04xG0.99