Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Egersund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Egersund 3-3 Sogndal
Original prediction
Egersund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 49.3% | 52.0% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.9% | 19.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.7% | 28.8% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Egersund
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Egersund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EgersundDWLLW
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SogndalLLLDD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
EgersundSogndal
50.0Attack52.0
35.9Defence25.3
42.3Form30.7
43.5Power37.7
2.49xG1.82