World Cup
Ecuador
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Germany leads with 59% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Ecuador head into this in World Cup fixture at MetLife Stadium in mixed form (LWDL), while Germany arrive in decent form (DLWW). Ecuador have a 25% win rate across their last 4 matches, compared to 50% for Germany over 4 games.
Tactically, Germany hold the edge. Their elite attack (90/100) is pitted against a solid Ecuador defence (66/100), while Ecuador's attack faces a average Germany backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.
Ecuador have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game at home. Germany have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.
Ecuador have generated 0.36 xG per game recently while conceding 0.50 xG per match. Germany have generated 1.67 xG per game recently while conceding 0.82 xG per match.
Ecuador have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.
The GoalVio engine projects Germany to win with 63% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-2. Win probabilities: Ecuador 1940%, Draw 2210%, Germany 5860%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
Recent form
Ecuador
Germany
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ecuador vs Germany?
GoalVio's model predicts Germany to win with 63% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Germany?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-2.
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Germany?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ecuador vs Germany?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.