Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ebro 1-0 Terrassa
Original prediction
Ebro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.6% | 37.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 31.0% | 30.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.4% | 32.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Ebro
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Ebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EbroLWDLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TerrassaWWDWW
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.40/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
EbroTerrassa
44.4Attack22.2
66.7Defence100.0
44.4Form77.8
53.1Power70.7
1.09xG0.97