Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebro · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ebro 2-0 Reddis
Original prediction
Ebro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.4% | 41.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.7% | 28.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 26.9% | 29.6% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Ebro
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Ebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EbroDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ReddisLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EbroReddis
66.7Attack0.0
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power23.7
1.55xG1.13