Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ebro 0-1 Girona II
Original prediction
Ebro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.0% | 52.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 24.8% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 22.9% | 23.2% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Ebro
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Ebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EbroWWWLW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Girona IILWDWL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
EbroGirona II
50.0Attack80.0
77.8Defence26.7
72.2Form46.7
68.7Power53.0
1.93xG1.03