Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ebro 2-0 Calamocha
Original prediction
Ebro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 71.7% | 57.7% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 19.9% | 24.2% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 10.82 | 8.3% | 18.1% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Ebro
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Ebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EbroWWLWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CalamochaLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
EbroCalamocha
46.7Attack33.3
73.3Defence0.0
66.7Form33.3
64.6Power26.7
1.78xG0.74