Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebolitana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ebolitana 2-2 Gravina
Original prediction
Ebolitana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.0% | 37.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.5% | 28.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.4% | 33.7% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ebolitana
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Ebolitana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EbolitanaLLDWL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GravinaDDLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
EbolitanaGravina
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24