Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
EBK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
EBK 0-1 Musa
Original prediction
EBK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.6% | 54.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.2% | 20.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.2% | 24.6% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
EBK
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
EBK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EBKLDWDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MusaWWDDL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
EBKMusa
49.3Attack42.0
29.0Defence5.8
30.4Form29.0
37.3Power28.1
3.06xG1.67