Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eastleigh 1-1 Southend
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.91 | 23.4% | 25.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.7% | 23.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 52.8% | 51.2% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EastleighLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SouthendLWWDW
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
EastleighSouthend
40.0Attack83.3
53.3Defence46.7
46.7Form66.7
49.5Power65.2
1.32xG2.20