Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eastleigh 1-0 Carlisle
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.99 | 22.9% | 34.1% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.0% | 23.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 54.1% | 42.3% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EastleighLDLDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CarlisleDDLWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
EastleighCarlisle
41.7Attack66.7
58.3Defence45.8
45.8Form41.7
51.6Power52.2
1.49xG1.50