Easternvs
North District
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
North District · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eastern 1-3 North District
Original prediction
North District
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.50 | 20.1% | 22.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.3% | 21.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.6% | 56.0% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
North District
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
North District has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20