Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitchee · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eastern 3-1 Kitchee
Original prediction
Kitchee
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 22.1% | 27.3% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 26.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.6% | 45.8% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Kitchee
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Kitchee has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EasternLWLLD
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KitcheeDWWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EasternKitchee
33.3Attack66.7
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power89.7
1.24xG1.88