League CupLeague Cup
Tuesday, 21 July 2026Last updated 10:12
East Fife

East Fife

Home
WD
31
Full time
Linlithgow Rose

Linlithgow Rose

Away
L
MGM Timber Bayview Stadium
GoalVio prediction
54% confidence
Draw(22%)
Win probability
East Fife
54%
Draw
22%
Linlithgow Rose
23%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
East Fife
54
Linlithgow Rose
9
Defence
East Fife
82
Linlithgow Rose
27
Momentum
East Fife
67
Linlithgow Rose
0
Danger (xG)
East Fife
1.35
Linlithgow Rose
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.64 xG for East Fife and 1.33 xG for Linlithgow Rose — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.31), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.97 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.

xG for (East Fife)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Linlithgow Rose)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (East Fife)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Linlithgow Rose)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
East FifeEast Fife
WD
Linlithgow RoseLinlithgow Rose
L

Probability breakdown

54% confidence
East Fife54%
Draw22%
Linlithgow Rose23%

East Fife leads with 54% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

East Fife Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

East Fife take on Linlithgow Rose in League Cup.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.64 expected goals for East Fife against 1.33 for Linlithgow Rose — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. East Fife's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 64% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Linlithgow Rose have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While East Fife carry the stronger underlying metrics, Linlithgow Rose's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

East Fife have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives East Fife a 64% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours East Fife, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Linlithgow Rose score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.31 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

East Fife

East Fife

W
vs Morton
14 Jul 2026
20
D
@ Inverness CT
11 Jul 2026
11
Linlithgow Rose

Linlithgow Rose

L
vs ST Johnstone
14 Jul 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win East Fife vs Linlithgow Rose?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 54% confidence.

What is the predicted score for East Fife vs Linlithgow Rose?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in East Fife vs Linlithgow Rose?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in East Fife vs Linlithgow Rose?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more