Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dynamo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dynamo 3-0 Akhmat
Original prediction
Dynamo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.9% | 39.8% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.3% | 28.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 22.9% | 32.1% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Dynamo
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Dynamo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DynamoWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AkhmatDWWLD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DynamoAkhmat
16.7Attack50.0
83.3Defence66.7
50.0Form66.7
53.0Power64.8
1.18xG1.17