Dynamo Dresdenvs
1. FC Magdeburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/18/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Magdeburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dynamo Dresden 2-0 1. FC Magdeburg
Original prediction
1. FC Magdeburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.8% | 24.9% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.9% | 21.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 36.2% | 53.7% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Magdeburg
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
1. FC Magdeburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60