Durham Wvs
Newcastle United W
COMPLETEDEngland · Women's Championship · 10/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Durham W 0-3 Newcastle United W
Original prediction
Newcastle United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.51 | 9.6% | 21.6% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.79 | 15.7% | 24.0% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 1.22 | 74.8% | 54.4% | -20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle United W
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Newcastle United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 18 · avg 1.20/3.60
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80