Durham Wvs
Manchester United W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Durham W 1-5 Manchester United W
Original prediction
Manchester United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 34.50 | 2.7% | 23.1% | 20.3 pts |
| Draw | 17.38 | 5.4% | 20.3% | 14.9 pts |
| Away | 1.02 | 91.9% | 56.6% | -35.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United W
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Manchester United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00