Durham Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 10/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Durham W 0-5 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Birmingham City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.22 | 17.1% | 34.9% | 17.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.33 | 20.6% | 24.0% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 62.3% | 41.1% | -21.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham City W
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Birmingham City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40