Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Durango are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded, while Monarcas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 14.3-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60