Dunkerquevs
Saint Etienne
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 2 · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Etienne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dunkerque 2-1 Saint Etienne
Original prediction
Saint Etienne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.59 | 20.3% | 21.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.7% | 23.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 56.0% | 55.0% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Saint Etienne
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Saint Etienne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80