Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dunkerque 1-1 Metz
Original prediction
Metz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.5% | 33.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.4% | 28.2% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 40.1% | 38.2% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Metz
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Metz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DunkerqueWLLLW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MetzWLDLW
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DunkerqueMetz
48.1Attack55.6
44.4Defence51.9
40.7Form48.1
46.8Power53.5
1.45xG1.66