Dungannon Swiftsvs
Carrick Rangers
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dungannon Swifts · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dungannon Swifts 2-4 Carrick Rangers
Original prediction
Dungannon Swifts
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.6% | 44.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 27.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.3% | 27.6% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Dungannon Swifts
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Dungannon Swifts has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20